Entering 2026, the senior living industry has momentum as providers make gains in occupancy and margins. All of that hinges on operators acting now – sometimes with bold intentions.
Senior living leaders know well that they must serve a new and larger generation than ever before with the arrival of the baby boomers. New preferences and more older adults than previous generations are both an opportunity and a potential challenge ahead. To HumanGood CEO John Cochrane, now is the time for the industry to look forward and act with an open mind – and plenty of confidence.
“We either accelerate, innovate, and lead, or we drift into irrelevance. We must play offense in aging services, delivering not just the promise of future security but measurable transformation now. We have a choice. We will step up or get stepped on,” Cochrane told Senior Housing News.
Cochrane’s sentiment is shared by other leaders in the space as demand is rising, consumer expectations are changing and a lack of execution or willingness to change could prevent providers from improving the bottom line during a historic period of demand.
The Covid-19 pandemic era reset assumptions about what residents would tolerate in regard to rate increases, and many operators are pushing pricing power further as supply is constrained. But intense rate growth is not viable for the industry’s value proposition and pushing rates in less competitive or sought after markets can harm an operator’s bottom line.
Today, senior living providers are focused on precision in operations, able to define value to customers, maintain attractive price points and manage rates that can strategically improve margin while not forcing out residents.
To support margin growth, operators have improved their staffing models to ensure operations can run smoothly and allow for departments to interact with one another, all in the name of improving the overall resident experience. To further improve workforce conditions in senior living, leaders told SHN stronger training was needed along with more defined career pathways for future advancement and higher wages for existing workers.
Senior Housing News caught up with a wide range of senior living executives to examine industry sentiment heading into 2026, and this article is the first installment in a two-part series highlighting their thoughts in their own words.
Paul Boethel, CEO, Watermark Retirement Communities
For 2026, yes—we’re in a good position to meet the demand. That’s not because development has suddenly accelerated, but rather because there’s still plenty of capacity in most markets to absorb the increase. Industry-wide occupancy is still below 90%, so we have room to grow for the next couple of years. That said, this cushion won’t last long. The 80+ age group is projected to grow by about 16% by 2028, which means we’ll be near capacity unless new supply comes online.
Beyond 2026, I’m confident the market will respond. We’re already seeing developers laying the groundwork—preplanning and predevelopment activities are underway. Construction costs spiked during COVID while rental rates climbed more gradually, but as that gap narrows, projects will start to make financial sense again. By 2027, I expect we’ll see a noticeable uptick in new builds as feasibility improves for both builders and investors.
Our biggest priorities for 2026 are rate and margin, but right alongside that is training. Senior housing is a complex business, and expectations for similar roles can vary widely from one operator to another. Hiring someone with a strong track record doesn’t guarantee success unless we clearly define what success looks like in our environment.
That means outlining the operating model, performance expectations, and support systems for every position—and then training to those standards. When we do that well, retention improves and labor challenges ease. So, for us, growth isn’t just about adding units; it’s about building a stronger, more consistent team that can deliver on our promise to residents.
One silver lining from COVID was that it shattered the old assumption that senior housing couldn’t sustain rate increases above 3%. Before the pandemic, annual rent growth hovered at or below that mark, and operators were hesitant to push higher. That conservative approach in Senior Housing compared to other asset classes spills over into wages, making it harder to compete for top talent.
The inflationary pressures during COVID forced operators to raise in-place rates significantly—and residents accepted it. That shift dispelled some of the prior beliefs around rate increase limits and opened the door to managing rates more strategically, similar to how other industries handle scarce resources. As occupancy stabilizes, rate and margin will become the industry’s next big focus. With stronger margins, we’ll have more flexibility to retain great talent and attract new people from other sectors, which is critical for long-term success.
Dale Watchowski, CEO, American House Senior Living
My interpretation of the market is that demand is coming, but the question remains; whether the industry is prepared to deliver a product that feels relevant, flexible and value appropriate. The incoming boomer cohort appears more value-conscious, more vocal and less willing to accept experiences that feel institutional or rigid. They are not only comparing senior living options to one another, but also to aging at home with services, technology and family support layered in.
As the first baby boomers turn 80 in 2026, we’ll start to see this dynamic play out more visibly. Demand alone, in my view, won’t compensate for a lack of focus, discipline or operating expertise. This generation is informed, discerning and willing to express dissatisfaction when expectations aren’t met.
The industry often leads with demographics, and today we have the ability to analyze opportunities with extraordinary precision. But demographics don’t resolve poorly structured deals, undisciplined growth or weak execution. To effectively support both our teams and our residents, we must maintain economic viability. That means operating with an investor-first mindset. We operate with the understanding that senior housing is a unique asset class that requires full immersion, deep market knowledge and consistent operational excellence. From my perspective, the next phase of senior living will separate organizations that understand the full lifecycle of the asset from those relying on fragmented approaches that have not proven durable.
Our growth strategy over the next 12 months reflects that belief. We expect deal flow to increase, but we are not pursuing growth for growth’s sake. As a regional operator, we remain disciplined about where we invest and operate. For American House, that focus remains east of the Mississippi. Building off our Michigan roots, we expanded our presence into the Midwest up into New England and into Southwest Florida where our brand was well-recognized.
We have made thoughtful moves throughout the Southeast with a deliberate plan to secure properties in adjacent markets, extending our presence through the Mid-Atlantic and connecting to New England. We are not pursuing broad geographic expansion; instead, we remain focused on markets we know well, expanding only into adjacent areas where we have established market knowledge and operational expertise. If we don’t have confidence in our ability to create value, we simply won’t pursue the transaction.
Discipline becomes even more important as capital begins to re-enter the space. Looking ahead to 2026, I expect capital to continue to flow into our space, much of which will include new participants. History suggests that an abundance of capital and overexuberance can skew the fundamentals. The effects may not be immediate, but they will surface over time.
American House operates as a fully integrated senior housing platform, aligning acquisitions and development within a single, disciplined framework. This allows us to thoughtfully match opportunities with the right capital partners. We spend time understanding investor expectations and ensuring we can deliver against them throughout the lifecycle of the investment. That alignment is why we don’t feel pressure to chase capital or force partnerships that aren’t a fit.
Operational focus remains central to our approach, and it starts with people. Team longevity and local market knowledge are what matter most. Strong outcomes require experienced teams who know their markets and understand how to operate within them. When that connection is missing, service quality suffers, turnover rises and residents ultimately feel the impact.
While acquisitions remain a priority, I also believe there is a time to build and a time to buy. Given current supply constraints, we’re approaching what I see as a window to develop selectively. We’re entering 2026 with four development projects in markets where fundamentals support new supply and demand can help inform pricing. At the same time, high material costs, labor shortages and construction complexity mean development must be approached carefully. I also expect fundamental-driven opportunities to emerge among underperforming assets, where experienced operators with the right platform can create optimal outcomes.
Our partners are increasingly seeking deeper data and insight, and we’re responding by expanding how we use technology across the portfolio. The goal is straightforward: to have the right information at the right time to support better decisions and enable us to maximize income and asset value. Tools such as AI enhanced analytics, financial dashboards, advanced reporting and custom GPTs will help us model performance, test scenarios and move from reactive management to more proactive planning. Just as importantly, these tools reduce manual effort so teams can focus on decision-making and execution. Technology will also play a growing role in supporting resident experience and care, particularly as acuity increases. Used thoughtfully, tools that help identify risk, monitor changes, or flag early indicators allow teams to intervene sooner and personalize care—enhancing, not replacing, human connection.
What excites me about this moment is that it rewards companies that have stayed strategically focused. I want American House to be large enough to support our stakeholders and teams, but not so large that we lose accountability, customization or presence at the community level. And that to me is what our commitment to operaZonal excellence means. They are not just words. I want to know my teams, I want the interaction—walking the communities and maintaining a presence.
As we look toward 2026, our priorities remain straightforward, even if execution isn’t easy: disciplined growth, operational excellence and no shortcuts. This approach carried us through the pandemic and continues to guide our strategy. From where I sit, it positions us well for the next cycle of growth.
Greg Roderick, CEO, Frontier Senior Living
I see the demand growing every single day. At our communities, the number of leads continues to grow every month, tours are steady and adult children are making informed decisions much more quickly. Our newer communities are filling quickly, and those that have had significant upgrades are also very popular. All types of seniors housing (i.e., active adult, independent retirement, assisted living and memory care) are all filling very well. In fact, we are seeing more and more communities achieving 90% or better occupancy for the first time in 5-years. Through November 2025, we achieved 14-consecutive months of net occupancy gains, as a Company, and that is something that speaks volumes about the overall demand. So, to answer the question regarding readiness, I do feel that our profession has honed its skills and messaging very well and the companies and leaders are prepared to deliver excellent services. However, I also see a significant need for additional development of new properties necessary to meet the 2026 and beyond demand as the current inventory is filling very quickly.
Seniors housing operators will need to become aware of and embrace Value Based Care. At Frontier Senior Living, we have fully embraced this with Curana Health and Age Right Advantage but have really taken this far beyond with our Frontier Advantage Network. Identifying therapy, hospice, pharmacy, nurse practitioners, laboratory, dental, podiatry, and other critical healthcare provider services is essential so to have a team of experts to address and become involved in the clinical team and care delivery within a senior living community. This, even over technology, is going to be more and more important, and it is free. By having a provider network supporting your community, you have a unique and better story that will attract seniors and drive occupancy while “closing the back door”.
The expectations of the next generation of seniors are going to be far more hospitality driven as well including food and beverage, health and fitness, ease of healthcare providers in the community, and life enrichment. These are a new wave of wellness that Frontier Senior Living has recognized and moved our operations towards.
Growth has been challenging over the last several years due to a lack of equity investor interest as well as a recovering lender pool. Today, the lenders are back and eager to become involved in the growth of our industry.
Equity investors are certainly returning and interested in opening conversations, but the painful events around and post COVID-19 are still not forgotten. We need both to fully return to see development start again. We are engaging in conversations with our current clients and financial clients and partners to begin growing our business again. Our growth target is approximately 20% annually from here. Our specific strategies and operational systems are ready for our expansion and are not a concern.
Frontier is realizing many positive tailwinds on these items today. First, our staffing is stable. In fact, we are enjoying very little turnover in our leadership from the community departmental supervisors, our regional team and our home office. Truly, the lowest turnover in many years. Secondly, Expenses and Net Operating Income margins are very much back to our pre-Covid levels.
Obviously, depending on the location/state, these vary (depending on taxes, utility rates, insurance costs), but we are seeing nearly 30% to north of 42% NOI margins at stabilization across our business.
Thirdly, our rental rates have grown to meet the needs of the operation, wages and inflationary conditions of our space and we have seen as low as 6% and as much as 10% over the last 5-years. Going forward, we anticipate a range of 4% to 7% due to the overall economic conditions that are far more favorable.
Finally, development and acquisitions are always of interest to the Frontier team as we are passionate about this space and are fully committed to the health and longevity of our industry. We hope to become involved in many more communities over the years. New developments will always have a wide range of costs associated with construction and related expenses. We are fortunate to have an incredible development team that is able to help investors realize a reasonable cost structure, as much as 25% less than most developments that we see happening in this space today.
Chris Belford, CEO, Sinceri Senior Living
Demand is accelerating as the 85-plus population grows, and staffing remains the single greatest constraint on the industry’s ability to scale responsibly. The traditional senior living labor model is no longer sufficient for the level of care now required. We are investing heavily in recruiting, training, and retention, including higher wages, improved benefits, flexible scheduling, and clearly defined career pathways, but compensation alone will not solve the problem.
We are expanding beyond conventional hiring channels, including exploring offshore talent authorized to work in the U.S. under H-1B visas for appropriate roles. We have also built a dedicated internal team focused solely on recruitment, training, and professional development, recognizing that workforce strategy can no longer be a secondary function of operations. Looking ahead, the industry will increasingly rely on AI and advanced technology to support recruiting, scheduling, and workforce optimization, allowing operators to deploy staff more effectively rather than replacing the human elements of care. Communities that fail to modernize how talent is sourced and managed will find growth increasingly constrained.
COVID-era margin compression forced operators to either adapt or fall behind. Over the past four years, we have achieved consecutive margin improvement by becoming more disciplined and data-driven operators, not by cutting corners, but by making difficult decisions around pricing strategy, vendor alignment, and labor deployment. Expense pressure remains persistent, particularly around wages, which now represent a structurally higher cost base for the industry.
In 2025, we also faced tariff-driven cost increases but mitigated much of that impact by working proactively with vendor partners to identify alternatives rather than simply absorbing price hikes. Rate growth has been stronger than expected, driven by demand dynamics and constrained supply, and we believe pricing power will continue for operators who can clearly articulate value, outcomes, and differentiation to increasingly sophisticated consumers.
In the near term, we are not pursuing ground-up development and are instead focused on growth through strategic acquisitions and operational optimization of existing communities.
That focus allows us to be selective and opportunistic in pursuing acquisitions that align operationally and culturally with our platform. We continue to evaluate communities where our operating model can drive performance and long-term value rather than pursuing scale for its own sake. At the same time, we are seeing renewed interest in senior housing from institutional and alternative investors who view the sector as an attractive long-term asset class. We have met with firms seeking industry insight who recognize that operational excellence, not financial engineering alone, will determine success in the next cycle.
The most significant operational shift we see is rising acuity across the resident population. Seniors are moving in later and with greater clinical complexity and care needs, and this trend will accelerate into 2026 and beyond.
This means operators must fundamentally rethink how care is delivered, including staffing models, clinical oversight, care coordination, and the integration of clinical and hospitality functions. At the same time, higher care needs do not diminish the importance of human connection.
Our “Feels Like Family” approach ensures that as care becomes more complex, communities remain personal, relational, and emotionally resonant. Operators that fail to balance clinical rigor with genuine human connection will struggle to meet the expectations of the next generation of residents and families.
Ultimately, the coming demand will reward operators who can execute at a higher level. For us, that means pairing operational discipline and workforce strategy with care models that meet higher needs while still feeling personal and trusted, grounded in a true “Feels Like Family” experience for residents and families.
Greg Puklicz, President, 12 Oaks Senior Living
At 12 Oaks Senior Living, we are excited for 2026 as we believe it will be a watershed year in many ways for us. First and foremost, the industry, as a whole, is staged to launch and although there remain many obstacles to maneuver around, the tailwinds of the macroeconomic fundamentals will provide more than sufficient velocity for us to reach new heights in occupancy, RevPar, operating margin, and continuing curation of community culture.
With regard to the fundamentals of supply and demand, the lack of new supply and the still relatively low transactional basis of many communities has allowed for a great reset of economic stability, as going forward, the opportunity to create real value in communities, is at our doorstep.
With average portfolio occupancy at 12 Oaks now hovering at 89%, we will be in a position to achieve economic full occupancy in our portfolio, allowing us to turn our attention to acceleration of RevPar growth, yielding decade best revenue results. Although inflationary pressures and staffing shortages will continue to stress operating expenses, the increases in revenue will outpace the increases in expenses, and consequently, margins will rise.
We are also excited that many others across the real estate industry are also noticing the positive trends in senior housing and as new investors seek best-in-class operators, 12 Oaks Senior Living is poised to continue its rise as the preeminent, truly regional operator in the southwest. New relationships in 2025 will be leveraged and expanded in 2026, while portfolio curation, meaning larger, stable, well-capitalized communities, will be onboarded to replace the distressed turnarounds that have been restored and rejuvenated, positioning them for disposition.
In 2026, the cream will certainly rise to the top and 12 Oaks Senior Living is uniquely positioned to provide best in class management services with its trusted partners.
Mark Lichtenwalner, CEO, AgeWell Solvere Living
The median age for Independent Living move-ins is around 81, so the first wave of boomers will start affecting IL, IL/AL, and IL/AL/MC communities in 2026, with a bigger impact in 2027. NIC MAP Vision shows Independent Living occupancy at roughly 91 percent and still rising. There is some available capacity, but not enough to carry the industry for long. New supply needs to open by 2027 or 2028 if we want to stay ahead of demand.
For assisted living and memory care, the median move-in age is closer to 85. The boomer impact will hit these sectors a few years later. Even so, occupancy in AL and MC is trending upward, which means the same thing: we need more supply by 2028.
Today’s seniors already expect social, intellectual, physical, and spiritual engagement. wellness is part of daily life, not an add-on. The boomers will push this even further. To keep up, operators and investors will have to make intentional updates to existing communities. That includes more functional fitness spaces, better Wi-Fi, more flexible dining options, access to learning and cultural programs, volunteer opportunities, and ways to try new experiences.
Transportation also needs improvement, so residents can go beyond routine errands and enjoy trips that feel meaningful. At the same time, we have to find ways to manage rising costs, and to continue using technology, health monitoring tools, and practical AI solutions to help us improve care and efficiency.
AgeWell Solvere Living operates 35 communities from Texas through Virginia, supported by strong capital partners. Our five-year plan is to grow to 75 communities. We expect most of that growth to come from our existing partners, driven by consistent performance and solid management services.
For 2026, our focus is straightforward: build strong teams at each community and maximize returns for our capital partners. The biggest challenge we see is getting new developments financed. High interest rates, construction costs, and ongoing operating pressures like labor, food, and insurance all make financing difficult. We have several new developments that are shovel-ready but not yet funded.
Communities that fall behind industry averages are usually in saturated markets or lack features that consumers now consider standard. There is pressure across the industry to increase rates to improve margins, but that strategy does not work everywhere.
A community sitting at 85% occupancy is unlikely to benefit from a 10% rate increase, even if the goal is to lift NOI. We are watching these situations closely. Concerns, predictions, and uncertainties It is easy to assume steady growth ahead, but there are real “what ifs” to consider:
- What if another pandemic emerges and affects staffing, occupancy, or public perception?
- What if investigative reporting exposes issues the industry has been slow to address?
- What if boomers choose condos and use third-party services instead of moving into senior living?
- What if large suburban homes lose value because younger generations prefer flexibility and do not want long-term ownership?
These scenarios are not extreme. They force us to think about how adaptable we really are and whether our current growth models are as durable as we hope.
Michael Levine, Senior Managing Director of Real Estate and Active Adult, Greystar
In active adult, we feel confident about demand tailwinds, but we’re planning with discipline rather than euphoria. Growth for growth’s sake is not the strategy, sustainable, margin-minded growth is.
Greystar’s scale gives us a unique vantage point. In active adult, we’re leaning into targeted development in markets with true demand depth, while simultaneously keeping a sharp eye on acquisition or repositions opportunities (to turn into AA assets) where we can add operational value quickly. Not every site pencils today, in fact few do right now. We’re comfortable walking away from deals that only work on overly optimistic rent assumptions.
We believe the winners will be developers and operators who match product to price point, especially as the middle-market becomes the single largest opportunity, yet the hardest one to deliver. The high-end product like the Overtures and Everleigh’s will also do great, just has to be the right site.
The biggest headwind isn’t demand, it’s delivering a product people can afford while still protecting margin. Construction costs and capital expectations continue to pressure underwriting. Active adult has historically been insulated from clinical/generalized labor cost, but insurance, hospitality labor, and operating expenses continue to tighten margins.
Everyone assumes people over 55 will behave like their parents. They won’t. They expect flexibility, wellness not bingo, autonomy not programming calendars taped to a wall. If operators respond with luxury price points rather than thoughtful value, we’ll miss the middle altogether. People entering the young space that do not understand it. It is a very hard product to operate, and few get that. I’m also watching labor availability and affordability closely. Even in AA, wage expectations are rising. Any tech or workflow change we adopt must reduce hours, not add complexity.
Active adult remains the most scalable and operationally efficient segment in the continuum. Margins are healthier. Care staffing/food service pressures are not there. Engagement and lifestyle drive satisfaction, and people over 55 are willing to pay for experience when they feel value.
At Greystar, we’re investing in wellness-forward programming, resident-led engagement, social connectivity, and flexible amenity spaces that feel modern, like home. The market is rewarding vibrant communities that activate residents, not just house them.
Priorities for 2026
- Grow active adult through selective development in high-conviction markets
- Leverage scale for operational efficiency and procurement advantage
- Pursue acquisition/reposition opportunities when pricing resets
- Build value-engineered product that meets the middle-income need
- Deploy tech only when it reduces labor and simplifies operations
- Stay resident-centric — purpose, wellness, autonomy, and community first
The next decade will reward operators who are bold enough to adapt, but disciplined enough not to chase shiny objects. At Greystar, we intend to lead from both angles.
John Cochrane, President and CEO, HumanGood
This is the age of scientific wellness. It’s a defining moment for our field and a crossroads. The world is aging, the workforce is shrinking, and our healthcare system—built for chronic and late-stage sick care—is collapsing under its own weight. It’s unaffordable, undesirable, and unsustainable. It’s time to shift our focus from the last mile of care to the first mile of health and close the gap between healthspan and lifespan.
Improving healthspan isn’t optional—it’s a moral and economic imperative. No sector is better positioned to lead this shift than ours. We have what others don’t: daily access, deep trust, and real visibility into both the challenges and the solutions. This is our moment to seize the vast competitive advantage we have.
The ground is moving beneath us faster than ever before. We either accelerate, innovate, and lead, or we drift into irrelevance. We must play offense in aging services, delivering not just the promise of future security but measurable transformation now. We have a choice. We will step up or get stepped on.
Demand for our products and services has never been stronger. This gives us resources and capacity to act but can also lull us into a false sense of security. We cannot afford to squander the tremendous advantage we have as a field. The opportunity is enormous: to elevate partnerships across sectors, and equally, to partner more intentionally with our own residents, families, and teams. The future belongs to organizations that personalize care, democratize access to health information and resources, and break down the barriers that keep people isolated and underserved.
The headwinds are real—rising costs, regulatory complexity, changing expectations, and the rapid impact of AI on the workforce. But our history proves our resilience. We’ve adapted before, often against massive odds, emerging stronger and more relevant every time.
Now we need to show up with clarity and courage. The market has no time for vague reassurances and incrementalism. People don’t want to just get older—they want to get better, starting now. And they can. And we can be at the center of that movement. The winners will be the organizations that demonstrate real impact, build bold partnerships, elevate their teams, and put residents and customers at the center of every decision.
We have a rare and limited time opportunity to lead a global transformation in wellness, longevity, and healthspan. This is our hero’s journey and it begins now.
Steve Lindsey, CEO, GardenSpot
While we continue to work on expansion of our life plan campus model in the coming year, we are also working to be more creative in finding solutions for people not as interested (or unable to afford) that solution. This year, we launched a Continuing Care at Home (CCaH) program and, as we enter the new year, we will continue to educate the market on this offering and work to drive growth.
We are also in the process of construction on an adaptive reuse of an urban office tower into 55+ apartments, taking advantage of the walkable environment and amenities already in place. The CCaH program provides a nice overlay for those who are interested in the security of care as they age. We are also looking at a variety of partnership opportunities with developers or landowners that can reduce the cost and potentially increase the speed of getting a project to the market.
Healthcare operations continue to be challenged with regulatory pressure, staffing challenges and increasing operational costs forcing operators to think about alternative healthcare delivery models for the future.
Senior Living design will continue to evolve as we realize that we are living in a post-demographic world, where older adults expect to have all the options available to construct their own identity and lifestyle. The world is too complex, ideas are too available and people are too networked to think that there is a single design approach that will satisfy all baby boomers, so expect to see more creativity, diversity and mass customization enter our field.
Neuroaesthetics will begin to inform our design approaches as the tools and techniques of neuroscience are applied to architecture and interior design, allowing us to better understand how the brain responds to certain environmental attributes, evoking predictable emotions.
