The memory care sector continues to bring new opportunities and create new challenges, with operators looking to improve operations and improve resident care.
In 2025, operators see strong demand for senior living as favorable demographic trends persist, but getting communities to have strong occupancy and net operating income is not a guarantee. The cohort of older adults living in the U.S. with dementia is expected to rise to over 65 million by 2030, according to the National Institutes of Health (NHI).
Conditions on staffing have started to improve, but challenges remain in filling licensed care positions and reducing employee turnover. While there’s an opportunity to increase occupancy as construction rates remain low, high-acuity providers face a slew of challenges in operations, chief among them fighting rising operating expenses. There’s no doubt that the memory care sector will grow in 2025 and beyond, but affordability continues to threaten the industry’s ability to reach more older adults.
Memory Care Business connected with multiple senior living leaders to understand memory care sentiment as the industry moves into 2025:
Brookdale Senior Living Vice President and Chief Nursing Officer Kim Elliot:
Advancements in biomarker research is making it easier to detect dementia earlier and with greater accuracy. This progress can lead to better treatments, especially for specific types of dementia like Lewy body and Frontotemporal dementia. With earlier and more precise diagnoses, care can be more personalized and effective.
Memory care is also moving toward a more holistic approach, with a broader emphasis on integrated care focusing on brain health, nutrition, exercise, and stress management. These strategies aim to slow down cognitive decline, especially for those diagnosed early, helping them live fuller, healthier lives.
As the size of the US population aged 65 and older continues to rise, so too will the number of Americans with Alzheimer’s or dementia. This will create a rise in demand for memory care services, which also increases the need for care partners. Memory care providers must remain focused on recruiting and retaining trained care partners.
The memory care sector is poised for evolution in 2025, shaped by a continued demand for memory care services and advancements in ongoing research. The Alzheimer’s Association estimates 6.9 million Americans are living with Alzheimer’s or other dementia, with that number increasing along with the aging population.
While there are no known ways to prevent or cure Alzheimer’s disease, advancements in research to diagnose dementia at earlier stages presents a unique opportunity to build strong relationships with families early in their caregiving journey. These relationships can lead to better planning and even more tailored support over time.
We must continue to adapt and enhance memory care in line with the latest research findings, while researchers steadfastly strive toward the ultimate goal of finding a cure.
Anthem Memory Care CEO Isaac Scott
All eyes will continue to be on occupancy in the sector. As a company, we experienced a sharp increase in leads, move-ins resulting in higher occupancy in 2024 and we’re anxious to see if those trend lines continue. If it does continue through the year for Anthem and the rest of the MC industry, attention will quickly turn to where/ when and how new supply will meet the needs of our seniors. The other trend that will be interesting to follow is AI’s incorporation into all areas of the business. There is not a service, vendor, partner, system that is presented to us that does not somehow incorporate the lengths they are going to enhance their product using AI, but it is very difficult at this point to see if it’s really the difference maker that’s being claimed. Savvy MC operators will dedicate talent in data science and prompt engineering and choose to build rather than buy, creating tools that meet their specific needs rather than paying for an off-the-shelf product or service.
The top challenge for MC providers in 2025 will likely be a continuation of the top 2024 challenge – labor. Actively and creatively sourcing, improving selection, rapid and comprehensive onboarding, effective training, maintaining accountability, and appreciating and retaining staff will define the successful operator in this new year. We introduced a number of efforts in 2024 focused around communication and gratitude that we believe have had a positive impact on the overall culture of our communities and will seek to make additional efforts with a focused intent on seeing a dramatic reduction in turnover in 2025.
Anthem also rolled our entire portfolio onto the expanded level of care system on January 1st, 2025. This allows Anthem to more appropriately align our residents’ conditions and needs with the cost of their care. The pilot rolled out in 2024 was a win-win for the company and our residents and we anticipate it really having a stabilizing effect on the portfolio this year.
The 2025 outlook for the memory care sector remains optimistic. Focus on creative engagement, dining, and life experiences in the MC community will serve to attract families sooner. Along with products and services that improve resident health and safety (i.e., fall detection, AI enabled EHR), lengths of stay within the MC setting should begin to increase. More providers will likely move beyond simple, all-inclusive-style pricing to more strategic and accurate pricing based on the true cost of care delivery. All of these point to improved margins for the sector and a virtuous cycle in the years ahead.
Epoch Senior Living Chairperson Laurie Gerber:
Slowing the decline in cognition has become top of mind in an aging population and this has led to the growth of interest in brain health. While we know a lot about the body, the brain remains a mystery. Fortunately, neuroscience is the new frontier of medical research. This growth in brain research is encouraging and it appears that a breakthrough is imminent. The interest in brain health is also growing outside the medical community, as articles on non-pharma brain health interventions related to sleep, exercise, diet, and stimulation are now frequently published. We are also experiencing this increase of interest in our online caregiver support groups. We stared these support groups during the pandemic thinking that they were only meeting the need at the time. But attendance has exploded over the past year and our memory care communities have become a resource for caregivers of loved ones who live or do not live in one of our communities. This interest in memory care should only grow in 2025.
The opportunity for memory care providers is that we do provide non-pharma brain health interventions – each day. The demand for our services is here today. Memory care units were the first segment in our industry to recover from the pandemic and currently operate near capacity. One challenge is that along with the increased demand there has been an increased level of acuity of our memory care move ins. Cognitive decline diagnosis and interventions are happening earlier and a move to secure unit is occurring later in the disease progression. This has led to higher resident acuity levels in our communities and increased staffing needs. Meeting this staffing need is a challenge in today’s tight labor market. Generative AI is an interesting technology development that we are exploring. While it will not directly offset the need for staff, it could offer improved efficiencies. Our fall detection cameras do use AI and while it does not prevent falls, our staff’s response time is now in minutes. We are also looking to generative AI to synthesize all of our resident data in an effort to provide more personalized care. Another challenge is access to psych services which is a concern today that will only grow. In our communities, where we are able to connect residents with a consistent interdisciplinary psych team, we can see the difference in the residents’ quality of life. CMS’s Medicare GUIDE program could be a solution, but that pilot is in early days but bears watching.
Our outlook when it comes to the memory care sector is very optimistic. Resources are flowing into neuro research, and we may be approaching a tipping point to a significant finding. The growing interest in brain health is putting memory care assisted living on the radar of a growing number of sophisticated adult-child influencers. They have done their research and are looking for non-pharma brain health interventions in evaluating a memory care program. Thus, the program needs to do more than keep mom safe and clean. The demand for memory care services is there but we need to consistently level-up our programming and how we market and sell these services.
United Church Homes CEO Kenneth Daniel:
The demand for memory care services will continue to grow, fueled by the rising number of individuals living with dementia. According to the Alzheimer’s Association, nearly 7 million Americans aged 65 and older are living with dementia, a number projected to double by 2060. This growth supports the importance of expanding memory care neighborhoods, prioritizing mental health and emotional support for persons living with dementia (PLWD) and their caregivers. At United Church Homes, we recognize that dementia impacts entire families, not just individuals and we remain committed to offering comprehensive, compassionate support to navigate this challenging journey together.
United Church Homes sees significant opportunities in leveraging technology to enhance person-centered engagement for people living with dementia and caregivers. Initiatives like our Navi GUIDE program, which provides care navigation services, highlight our proactive approach. Intergenerational and purpose-driven programming remains central to our mission of empowering residents to live with purpose. However, challenges persist, particularly in delivering person-directed care amidst staffing shortages and addressing the financial strain dementia places on individuals and families. These realities drive our commitment to innovative solutions that alleviate these burdens while enhancing care.
As the baby boomer generation ages, the need for memory care services will surge. United Church Homes is focused on expanding programs like the CMS GUIDE Model, which supports PLWD at home through care navigation, caregiver education and resource access. Our strategy includes developing specialized care staff through standardized dementia education, ensuring a differentiated approach to care. We are also investing in innovative memory care neighborhoods and technology to enrich the lives of PLWD and their caregivers while embracing person-directed programming that honors individual preferences. Through these efforts, we aim to meet the growing needs of those we serve while setting new standards in memory care.
Bella Groves CEO James Lee
I believe that memory care will be shaped, in part, by the rise and growth of “Care Influencers” who create content directly for caregivers and those affected by dementia. The gap in knowledge, resources, easy-to-digest information, personal perspectives, relatable stories and even training in how-to style videos will continue to be met by social media care influencers. I also believe that experiments like the GUIDE Model by CMS, the influence of value based care models in healthcare, and the success of small businesses in dementia care like Bella Groves who are experimenting with fresh strategies are all shaping a shift in memory care from a healthcare and reactive approach to a lifestyle, educational and holistic well-being focus.
Many providers will focus on the challenges related to either the real estate side of memory care or the staffing side of memory care, but I think these are very near term perspectives and are not the core issues facing dementia care. From a longer perspective of memory care, I believe that the top challenges are related to helping unpaid family caregivers to be more successful outside of traditional seniors housing solutions. This presents a great opportunity for memory care to evolve from an all-in-one location to a hub of services, education, training and resources to help any caregiver to be more successful.
Abe’s Garden Chief Operating Officer Chris Coelho
In 2025 organizations that continue to invest in improving quality of life, purposeful programming, and resident, associate, and family satisfaction will see sustained growth in occupancy rates. As consumers become more educated about dementia and the Alzheimer’s journey and process, we will see an increase in due diligence on what their expectations will be. More will continue to be required out of memory care than being a secure “unit.”
What worked yesterday will not work with tomorrow’s consumer. We must be innovative in meeting the needs of the team that works in memory care, the residents that live there, and the families that advocate for their loved ones.
Those organizations and communities that focus on meeting the needs of their team members and residents that live in their memory care will thrive. There will be a gap that grows between these organizations that invest in these areas and those that choose the “old fashioned” room and board approach.
