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In the coming years, the senior living industry faces an interesting trend called the “half-back phenomenon.”
No, this is not related to football. Instead, the term refers to older adults who moved to places like Florida after retirement, and are now moving to cities about half the distance back to their original homes. The phenomenon was detailed in a new NIC MAP Vision report.
This and other trends mean that operators will have opportunities to attract older adults where they are living and aging in place, “even in metros with stagnating or even declining total populations,” according to NIC MAP Vision.
“The primary driver of senior population growth is aging in place, which underscores the need for senior housing developments that cater to the existing population transitioning into the 80+ category,” the report’s authors wrote. “This trend presents significant opportunities for the senior housing industry, particularly in primary and secondary markets throughout the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions.”
As I talk to senior living operators, I often hear about the need to have the right communities in the right markets where older adults are either moving or choosing to reside. Senior living owners including Ventas (NYSE: VTR) have poured tons of money into data and analytics operations to help determine where exactly senior living operators stand to gain the most from demographics and other market dynamics.
Reflecting on the report, it strikes me that filling an “investment gap” for senior housing totaling as much as $275 billion by 2030 will require developers, operators and their partners to be particularly alert not only to the new type of product that consumers want, but to sometimes surprising shifts in where they want that product to be located.
In this week’s members-only SHN+ Update, I analyze this NIC MAP Vision report and other data, and offer the following takeaways:
- Inside the “half-back phenomenon” and other migratory patterns causing long-time retirement hotspots to cool
- New opportunities for growth in markets in states like North Carolina, Tennessee, and Georgia
- Why larger markets with stagnant or declining populations are not necessarily bad targets for senior living growth
‘Half-back phenomenon’ and the decline of retirement hotspots
It’s no secret that older adults historically have flocked to Florida and other warm-weather states. The concept is so ubiquitous that it was the subject of a famous Seinfeld episode about a fictional retirement community in the Sunshine State named Del Boca Vista.
According to a report from the state of Florida, 900 people were moving to the state every day in 2022, with a large number of them age 60 or older. That year, more than 5.5 million people 60 and older lived in Florida, outnumbering the older adult populations of 20 other states combined. By 2045, Florida estimates its older adult population will increase to 8.4 million, or to nearly one-third of the state’s entire population.
Those numbers would suggest that senior living operators should continue to focus their efforts on the state – and to be fair, many currently are. But the NIC MAP Vision report revealed that not all of the older adults who moved to Florida in recent years are staying there, and despite the state’s booming older adult population, I think there are other reasons to be wary about the future of the Sunshine State for real estate development.
In terms of the half-back phenomenon specifically, some older adults who moved to Florida have decided to move closer to home by about half the distance, the NIC MAP Vision report stated. Older adults have gone from Florida to states and markets including Charlotte and Raleigh, North Carolina; and Nashville, Tennessee, which “are experiencing notable increases in their senior populations due to this trend,” according to NIC MAP Vision.
“Charlotte and Raleigh offer a balance of urban amenities and suburban tranquility, appealing to seniors seeking a more leisure pace of life without completely detaching from city conveniences,” the report reads. “Nashville, known for its vibrant music scene and cultural heritage, attracts seniors looking for a lively yet affordable retirement destination.”
I think it makes sense that older adults would seek the balance of affordability and urban lifestyle, and also find it appealing to be closer to the places where they previously lived and likely have friends and family. I also think it’s likely that other factors – namely, costs and risks associated with climate change – could compromise the appeal of Florida, perhaps severely, in the coming years.
This week, a new podcast series called Not Built For This aired an episode exploring the fallout of severe flooding and skyrocketing insurance costs in Florida. For years, government subsidies kept the cost of flood insurance manageable, but also masked the true level of risk that homeowners faced. As detailed in the podcast, the subsidies are going away under a new pricing model called Risk Rating 2.0, with the median premium set to increase more than 250%.
Older adults like Marion Morris – who is in her 70s and recently retired – moved to Florida in large part because of affordability, but Risk Rating 2.0 priced her out of the flood insurance market, as detailed in the episode. When Hurricane Ian struck in 2022, her house was severely damaged, and she paid out of pocket for the repairs. But especially in places like the city of Cape Coral, which was hastily developed decades ago in areas at extreme risk of flooding, an exodus might already be underway.
As reporter Jayson De Leon put it on the podcast: “I can’t help but feel that we’re approaching the end of an era – a time when we manipulated enough land and finances to make a place like this make sense.”
This is not to say that Florida will suddenly become a bad state for senior living development. Perhaps senior living communities actually could benefit from the difficulties that individual homeowners face, if developers can build communities that are both safer from climate risks and more economical than single-family homes. And while increases in insurance costs hit lower- and middle-income people the hardest, the senior living industry – at least for the moment – is generally targeting a more wealthy resident.
However, it strikes me that the half-back phenomenon is not the only reason why older adults are moving away from a place where, not too long ago, they were flocking. And Florida is not the only retirement hotspot facing extreme climate-related risks that could hit older adults hard and make once-appealing markets much less desirable.
Take Arizona. The state gets about 36% of its water from the Colorado River, according to ASU News. But the fate of the river – which has lost a significant amount of water due to megadrought conditions – has been among the hottest topics in recent years, in terms of how the environment in the United States is changing. And that could lead to a cascade of higher costs for residents of the state, including higher water bills and property taxes, and higher food costs as a result of compromised agriculture, ASU News reported.
Again, this is not to say any of these markets should be avoided, but developers and their operating partners will have to increasingly account for elevated risks and costs in some of the most appealing places to build, from a demographic perspective. That goes for some of the primary markets that NIC MAP Vision identified as prime candidates for development, such as Dallas, Houston and Atlanta. These cities stand out for older adult population growth. They have robust job markets, relatively affordable costs of living and good health care infrastructures, priming them for senior living growth.
“Each of these metros is projected to gain over 50,000 new seniors by 2029, with growth rates around 30%,” NIC MAP Vision noted.
On the secondary market side, NIC MAP Vision highlighted Austin, Texas for its cultural scene, climate, relative affordability and diverse population. The city is “projected to see the highest percentage increase in its senior population, nearing 40% by 2024,” according to NIC MAP Vision.
But keep in mind that just last month, we reported on the lengthy power outages that senior living communities in the Houston area experienced after Hurricane Beryl.
“I am quite disappointed that CenterPoint and the City of Houston were so unprepared for what was a relatively minor hurricane,” 12 Oaks Senior Living President Greg Puklicz told Senior Housing News. “The restoration of power at senior living communities needs to be prioritized going forward.”
Sodalis Senior Living President Traci Taylor-Roberts spoke about the costs incurred by the storm and its aftermath, including between $50,000 and $100,000 to bus residents out of one affected community.
Of course, all of these markets are not secret bastions of older adults yet to be discovered by senior living operators, and multiple large companies already have their sights trained on them. But the NIC report and these recent climate-related challenges suggest that the future might be even more unpredictable than we are expecting, and that the writing is not yet on the wall with regard to which markets older adults will end up favoring the most when baby boomer – and then Gen X – demand is at its strongest.
Aging in place ‘primary driver’ of older adult population growth
Senior living and in-home care have long been pitted against one another as almost mortal enemies, with the idea that older adults are choosing to either move into a senior living community or age in place at home.
So it was somewhat surprising to me that older adults aging in place was actually the “primary driver” of older adult population growth. But as I thought about it, I can see why: Not all older adults who want to age at home for the rest of their lives will be able to do so, and many will require residential senior living services if they live long enough.
That trend “presents significant opportunities for the senior housing industry, particularly in primary and secondary markets throughout the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions,” according to NIC MAP Vision.
That trend is also why senior living operators should not discount markets with total populations that are stagnant or even declining. Although the total number of people living in the market may not widely fluctuate, those markets will still have a large and growing older adult population beneath the surface.
On the surface, markets like New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles and Miami may not be a senior living operator’s first choice for growth, given those markets’ populations are not growing nearly as fast as others. But those cities hold many people currently between the ages of 75 and 79, some of whom will no doubt require senior living services in the next few years to come.
At the end of the day, I think operators are well aware of the opportunities ahead. I often talk to operators that are forging ahead with what I see as intelligent, thoughtful growth plans. But as senior living operators scale up and grow more sophisticated to meet demand in the years to come, I think there is a risk that their strategy for market selection does not level up along with them.
As such, I think the successful operators with regard to growth in the years to come will be the ones that look for some of these more surprising migration patterns and act accordingly.
